Events diary

4 May. The new South West Wiltshire constituency abuts the Chippenham seat in the attractive new Trowbridge estate of Paxcroft Mead. This means that adjacent streets are in different seats. This takes some explaining since most people living in Paxcroft would say they don’t have much in common with Chippenham but are part of Trowbridge from which they have been divided at a stroke of the boundary commissioner’s pen. However, it makes for interesting canvassing since one moment you’re trying to get people to vote for you and the other for Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones.

Polling in the marginals suggests that the gap between Labour and Conservatives is widening pointing towards a majority government. My feeling is that it’s also a lot better for the Conservatives in Lib Dem Tory marginals than the Clegg bounce would lead us to expect. Maybe it’s a south-west thing. One thing is for sure, politicians of all persuasions and their supporters will be over the marginals like a rash right up until the polls close on Thursday night. So far they seem to be bearing up (the voters that is) and I’m always surprised and delighted at the positive reception we canvassers get when importuning them on the doorstep or when yet another piece of literature lands on the mat.

In the last days of this campaign the public seems to be changing its mind on the virtues of a hung parliament. Such an outcome may be good for the Lib Dems but it isn’t clear who else would benefit. The markets seem to think that it would weaken our fragile economic recovery and usher in a year or six months of dither with every prospect of another election in short order.

Just two more canvassing days to go until polling day - electors, thank you for your forbearance!

30 April. After three weeks of hard slog the fascinating election of 2010 is entering its last few days. Hurrah!

Whilst Britain’s been politicking, the siesta economies of Europe have been going through the floor. After Greece, maybe Portugal, Spain and Italy, then who? For a clue compare and contrast the great deficits of Europe. Yep, you guessed it, the UK is well and truly in the frame, the only significant northern European country to be seriously at risk. We should then remind ourselves who has been at the helm since 1997; who it was indeed that managed to transform Ken Clark’s golden economic legacy into this. When Mr Brown talks about harsh measures that now have to be taken it would be seemly if he garnished his prescription with just a peck of contrition.

It’s been fascinating to see how public sentiment has changed during this campaign. It would be naive to suppose that the Clegg effect has simply been a flash in the pan but it is certainly the case that Nick Clegg’s lustre has been dulled following close scrutiny of Lib Dem policies. This has always been the third party’s dilemma – lack of coverage means people don’t consider them but with the attention they crave comes an examination of what they want to do. On the big issues that I’ve been getting on the doorstep – immigration, the EU, law and order etc the LDs are all at sea and completely out of tune with all but a minority of residents locally. I’m getting people that have previously been ‘soft’ Lib Dem voters saying they’ll not be supporting the third party this time on policy grounds and because they don’t want to see Labour with or without Gordon Brown kept in office by Nick Clegg.

I think the press is doing a pretty good job of exploring Mr Clegg’s carefully cultivated image as man on the street. It’s not his fault, of course, but Nick is, if anything, rather grander than David Cameron. When he lays into bankers and the wealthy as if he was a horny handed son of toil, Mr Clegg is inviting comment on how replete his family is with international bankers, financiers and European aristocrats.

Thirdly, the Lib Dems’ claim that they are purer than the other parties. But on what grounds? When asked when they’ll pay back the millions they’ve had from a convicted fraudster who is on the run they whine like a petulant child about being a small party that has already spent the money so shouldn’t be asked to cough up. Furthermore, it emerges that after all their high-mindedness about Lord Ashcroft they’ve just taken delivery of a whopping great bung from a couple of non-doms.

The British public will tolerate most things apart from humbug. If Mr Clegg is scratching his heads this weekend and wondering at the evaporation of Cleggmania perhaps he should reflect on that.

UKIP Chairman Lord Pearson has been calling off his candidates standing against Eurosceptic Tories in Somerset. How very sensible since all they can hope to achieve is the siphoning off of votes from the Conservatives thereby letting in Euro-federalist Lib Dems. We lost MPs last time because of UKIP which came no where near winning a single seat. In 2010 that could crucially affect the outcome of the election. I’m acquainted with plenty of UKIP people and know that the last thing they want for our country is 5 more years of Gordon Brown propped up by the Lib Dems.

17 April. At election time I always spend time in Three Horseshoe's Mall in Warminster where there is a nice open space where people can come and have a chat. I have to say that the messages of support today surpassed anything I have had before. It seems to me that people are focused on the removal of Gordon Brown since the prospect of five more years of him supported by a third party or parties is too much to bear. Tony Blair was the acceptable face of Labour for many in the south west. People felt safe with him but do not with a man who has dissembled before the Iraq Inquiry, sold off our gold reserves cheap and fleeced countless pension plan holders as virtually his first act as Chancellor in 1997 (I met some of them today).

I did the Westbury Swimathon at the town's brilliant historic swimming pool. 75 lengths, even of a small pool, is a long stretch but I was chuffed to get a medal at the end of it, my first swimming medal for 30 years.

My public meeting in Fovant was well attended. It seems to me that people are far more interested in politics at this election than in 2001 and 2005, probably because the outcome is far less certain.

16 April. Canvassing early in Westbury I met a number of people in their pajamas on the doorstep. Up late watching the leaders' televised debate, I thought. Not so, but they had got the gist of it on breakfast radio. The view still seems to be that it’s either five more years of Gordon Brown or a change with David Cameron. If there has been a shift in the way people view this contest it is that they fear the Lib Dems will hatch a deal after the election with Gordon so that he can stay at Number 10 despite getting hammered on May 6th.

Nick Clegg was always going to be the chief beneficiary of the TV debates since the two parties that will provide the next PM generally get the lion's share of the press coverage at election time. Having Nick alongside the other two suggests that he is equivalent which obviously is not the case in the sense that it is inconceivable that he'll actually win this election. I think the debates are a credit to Labour and the Conservatives since they must have known the likely outcome and could, had they wished, scuppered the plans. I'm enjoying village hall meetings which have been quite well attended. These used to be firm fixtures at election time before falling out of fashion but it seems to me that they are now staging something of a comeback.

8 April. My day began in Corsham and a meeting with shadow transport secretary Theresa Villiers. The hot topic was the performance of the Driving Standards Agency and the closure of Driving Test Centres including Trowbridge. Theresa agreed that there was real cause for concern and pledged that a Conservative government would look into what had been going wrong and take remedial action.
Back to Westbury to attend a packed meeting in support of the town's fantastic swimming pool. Cllr Stuart Wheeler, the portfolio holder, gave every assurance that the pool is safe. The campaign trail will get me fit, I hope, in time for the Westbury Swimathon next week.